¡Vaya año! Las economías han soportado sorprendentemente bien lo que se espera que sea una pandemia de una vez en el siglo. En las últimas semanas, las tasas de infección por COVID-19 en Estados Unidos y Europa han aumentado una vez más, lo que ha llevado a confinamientos parciales. Por cínico que parezca, esto parece ser una buena noticia para los precios de los activos, ya que obliga a los bancos centrales a continuar con sus programas de compra de bonos durante mucho tiempo.
El apoyo adicional lo proporcionan tres factores: los datos alentadores de las vacunas, las posibilidades de que la administración entrante de Biden en Estados Unidos promulgue cambios importantes en el código tributario de las empresas que han retrocedido, y el fondo de recuperación de la pandemia de la Unión Europea que está finalmente allanando el camino hacia una mayor integración fiscal.
¿Qué hacer con todo esto? Parafraseando al novelista italiano Giuseppe Tomasi di Lampedusa, muchas cosas han tenido que cambiar, solo para que todo siga igual, al menos en lo que respecta a las clases de activos de renta fija. Los lectores familiarizados con nuestra anterior perspectiva anual podrían experimentar un déjà vu: todavía nos gusta el crédito, probablemente más que nunca. Esta vez, estamos aún más convencidos de que los bonos corporativos ofrecerán un perfil excepcional de riesgo-retorno a medida que nos adentramos en 2021, con suerte, sin la montaña rusa del 2020.
Con los bancos centrales manteniendo el pie en el acelerador, seguimos esperando que los tipos de interés continúen bajos durante más tiempo. Nuestras perspectivas de tipos no han cambiado en Europa, el Reino Unido y Japón. Para Estados Unidos, esperamos curvas de rendimiento algo más pronunciadas en el extremo largo (bonos de 10 a 30 años), ya que el extremo muy largo debería volver a niveles más normales a medida que lleguen las noticias sobre la recuperación económica.
Aun así, los tipos de interés reales negativos persistirán para casi todos los bonos gubernamentales que pueden considerarse significativamente libres de riesgo. En Japón y en gran parte de la Eurozona, los tipos de interés nominales han sido negativos durante mucho tiempo, y parece que seguirán siéndolo. El Banco Central Europeo (BCE) ha indicado claramente que sigue vigilante y que todavía tiene como objetivo la expansión cuantitativa adicional (QE), dejando poco potencial en los rendimientos de la Eurozona.
Con estas alternativas libres de riesgo tan poco atractivas, no debería ser una sorpresa que continúe la búsqueda de rendimiento. Dentro de los bonos soberanos de la Eurozona, vigilamos de cerca la periferia de la UE. Por ejemplo, debido a la perspectiva más constructiva sobre Italia por parte de las principales agencias de calificación, estos bonos siguen siendo atractivos en los niveles actuales de los diferenciales, dado el roll-down y el carry.
Esta falta de alternativas ha llevado a una situación extraña en el mercado de bonos corporativos de grado de inversión (IG, por sus siglas en inglés) denominados en euros. Cada vez más, vemos que los bonos IG de alta calificación reemplazan a los soberanos como la clase de activos de anclaje en las asignaciones de los clientes.
En high yield (HY), hemos visto que incluso los emisores gravemente perjudicados por la pandemia siguen refinanciándose, lo que limita la probabilidad de futuros incumplimientos. Esperamos que las tasas de impago se mantengan bajas en la zona euro y probablemente disminuyan en Estados Unidos debido a los paquetes de apoyo fiscal y al hecho de que los modelos de negocio en peligro ya han quebrado. Las noticias positivas de las vacunas han hecho que incluso los rezagados de high yield en los sectores afectados por el huracán COVID-19 se hayan recuperado bien a ambos lados del Atlántico.
De cara a 2021, el estancamiento de Washington solo sería una buena noticia para los mercados en caso de que no fuera necesario adoptar medidas legislativas. Las evaluaciones del mercado se basan en la idea de que las políticas monetarias y fiscales han impulsado a los bonos, y vendrán rápidamente al rescate cuando sea necesario. Esta idea podría ponerse a prueba en los próximos meses si, por ejemplo, las medidas de contención del virus volvieran a exprimir a las empresas.
En general, nunca habíamos estado tan convencidos de que el crédito funcionará como para el 2021. Por supuesto, siempre hay idiosincrasias individuales que considerar, centradas en la fortaleza del balance, así como en las políticas monetarias locales para los bonos, por ejemplo, de los emisores de mercados emergentes denominados en moneda local.
Los diferenciales de los bonos en un contexto histórico
Para la mayoría de las clases de activos de renta fija, los diferenciales actuales siguen siendo más altos que a finales del año pasado, lo que sitúa a los bonos en el extremo más barato de las valoraciones históricas de los últimos 5 años.
Tribuna de Joern Wasmund, responsable de renta fija global en DWS
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