The role that listed real estate can play in portfolio management is evolving, and there are three factors in particular which have been instrumental in determining how this sector can contribute positively to risk-adjusted returns for income-oriented funds.
The first factor is simply size. At the end of February 2009 the free float market capitalisation of the EPRA Global Index was US$297 billion and the sector represented just 1.1% of the global equity market. Fast forward to December 2015 and the free float market capitalisation of the EPRA Global Developed Market Index is now US$1,284 billion (a fourfold increase) and represents 2.7% of the global equity market (source: EPRA). As a result the investable universe of liquid global real estate stocks has expanded considerably.
Secondly, the sector has a unique structure. Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) are obliged to distribute a high, fixed, percentage (typically 90%) of their income as dividends. If they meet this requirement they are typically exempt from corporate and Capital Gains Tax. As a result REITs combine the liquidity benefits of equities, with attractive income characteristics, and total returns driven by real estate factors. REITs account for around 70% of the EPRA Global Index and are the predominant structures in the US, UK, Europe and Australia.
Thirdly, valuation. The yield on the EPRA Global Developed REIT Index tended to trade below that of the Merrill Lynch Global Investment Grade Bond Index prior to the Global Financial Crisis. Since then, the reverse has generally been the case with REIT yields trading at a premium even after the recent sell-off in corporate bonds.
Preferred characteristics
However, a significant yield premium is only one part of the valuation picture. The other component is the level of anticipated growth in rental and capital values, which translates through to dividends and Net Asset Values (NAV) at the company level. It is here where we see different geographic areas displaying different growth trajectories, due to variances in local supply/demand dynamics. In this regard we can split the sector into three categories; regions with positive rental growth such as the UK, US, Japan and Australia; those with flatter growth profiles such as Europe and Canada; and those with declining rental values including Hong Kong and Singapore.
Our preference is to invest in those companies which have a decent starting yield, positive rentals and NAV growth projections, a high quality real estate portfolio, experienced and high quality management, and sensible leverage, broadly those with loans to value of under 40%.
What about rising interest rates?
Clearly, there are concerns about the impact of rising interest rates on real estate values, and as a result real estate shares. However, there are a number of reasons why we believe that the impact of potential issues could be muted. Firstly, as discussed previously current pricing of the sector, with a dividend yield of around 4.1%, and a discount to NAV of c.9% provides a reasonable ‘buffer’ against rises in bond yields. Secondly, in terms of valuation yields on direct property a significant proportion of the capital which is targeting the sector is equity, not debt, so rises in financing costs may have limited impact on values. As an example in 2015 Blackstone raised US$15.8 billion for its latest global real estate fund. Thirdly there is a level of rental growth already embedded in forecasts, and we anticipate dividend growth of 3.5% p.a. over the next three years. Finally, any rise in bond yields is likely to be limited by low inflation, slow GDP growth and cautious central banks.
Conclusion
We believe that selective listed real estate companies have a valuable role to play in income focussed funds at the present time, due to a combination of a dividend yield premium, stable cash flows, and attractive growth prospects.
John Stopford is Co-Head of Multi-Asset at Investec.
