In the current low interest rate, low growth environment investors are increasingly looking to equities for an attractive level of income. There are still lots of interesting investment opportunities around the world, but I believe investors should be wary about simply looking for the highest yields on offer.
Diversification
History shows that dividends from the highest-yielding stocks can often be unsustainable (as illustrated in the chart below). This is one of the reasons we believe that investing across a diversified list of moderate-paying companies that have the potential to offer both dividend and capital growth over the medium to long term is the best approach.
Sustainability
The chart below looks at the sustainability of dividend yields across developed markets between 1995 and August 2015 and highlights the risk of chasing high yields without considering the underlying strength of the company. It shows that, in general, an estimated yield above 6% is less likely to be realised, as seen by the difference between the red and grey bars, than a forecast yield of 6% or below.
Avoid value traps
We believe in avoiding value traps. This is because high-yielding equities can be more risky than their lower-yielding counterparts, particularly after a period of strong market performance (equity price rises push yields down). The high-yielding companies that are left are often structurally-challenged businesses or companies with high payout ratios (distributing a high percentage of their earnings as dividends) that may not be sustainable. An investor simply focusing on yields, or gaining exposure to this area of the market through a passive product, such as a high-yield index tracker fund, may end up owning a disproportionate percentage of these companies, which are often known as ‘value traps’.
We believe that an active, stock-picking approach is essential to equity income investing because it allows fund managers to analyse and understand which higher-yielding companies may have been undervalued by the market. To establish whether there is a real value opportunity we analyse a company’s earnings, strategy and the industry fundamentals to determine whether it is structurally at risk or whether it is just temporarily unloved, undervalued, or its earnings power underappreciated by the market.
Growing cash generation
Investors utilising a barbell investment approach, holding very high yield stocks to deliver income and very low dividend payers with more growth potential, may end up facing a greater than average number of dividend cuts than they appreciate. We prefer to spread risk by having a diversified portfolio of moderate dividend payers. Our focus is on investing in companies with strong and growing cash generation with the aim of finding attractive capital and dividend growth.
There are still plenty of opportunities for income investors with a global universe of more than 1,300 stocks in the MSCI All Country World Index that currently yield 2% or more. We focus on dividend paying companies that are generally yielding between 2% and 6%. This helps to ensure the yields we deliver to investors are at a healthy level and are suitably diversified with no reliance on any one sector or stock. This is in line with our philosophy of avoiding overvalued areas of the market.
Ben Lofthouse is a fund manager in a range of Equity Income mandates at Henderson.
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